France’s debt forecast crosses 120% of GDP in 2027
New Finance Ministry projections sharpen the choices behind the government’s next budget.
France’s public debt is now projected to reach 119.3% of gross domestic product in 2026 and 121.7% in 2027. Reuters reported the Finance Ministry figures on September 19, describing them as part of the material sent to the High Council of Public Finances for its assessment of the next budget.
The numbers are forecasts, not a final accounting of debt already incurred. They nevertheless show a steep change in the fiscal baseline: the government’s figure for 2025 was 115.7% of GDP, while debt was below 100% in 2019. The same submission anticipates a 2026 deficit of 5.4% of GDP.
A budget plan behind the ratio
Le Monde adds detail on how the draft seeks to narrow the deficit to 5% in 2027. Mandatory levies are expected to rise from 43.9% to 44.2% of GDP, while public spending is projected to edge down from 57.1% to 56.9%. Those ratios describe the draft’s direction, but parliament can still alter the measures behind them.
The latest projection is a meaningful development from the government’s earlier announcement of a €54 billion savings drive. It makes the debt path explicit and clarifies that savings are being proposed while defence costs, interest payments and other pressures continue to rise.
An independent comparison points in the same direction, although not to exactly the same figures. The European Commission’s May forecast expected France’s public debt to approach 120% of GDP by 2027 and the deficit to reach 5.7% under unchanged policies. Different assumptions and publication dates explain why forecasts should not be treated as interchangeable.
From projection to parliamentary test
The political test now concerns delivery. A budget proposal does not reduce debt simply by announcing a target, and the government must find parliamentary support in a divided National Assembly. Any change to taxes, pensions, local spending or ministerial budgets will also distribute the adjustment differently across households and institutions.
For readers, the next evidence to watch is the High Council’s opinion, the full draft budget and the amendments adopted in parliament. The headline ratio is important, but the measures used to reach it, and whether the forecast survives economic and political change, will determine the real impact.
Sources & context
Reporting and reference material used for this article. Context sources do not independently confirm every news claim.
- Reuters ↗Reporting on the Finance Ministry’s new debt and deficit projections, published 19 September 2026
- Le Monde ↗Independent reporting on the draft budget’s revenue, spending and parliamentary assumptions, published 19 September 2026
- European Commission ↗Institutional forecast published 21 May 2026; context using different assumptions
Written for WHIF from the linked material. This article does not claim on-the-ground reporting. Our editorial standards.